Blast From the Past

Remember the mention of Cicely Angleton's passing? Now we have the obit of another member of the same exclusive circle. (The deceased was the sister of Mary Pinchot Meyer.)

While Mrs. Bradlee’s life with her husband Ben was in many ways charmed — private dinners at the White House and weekend getaways at Hyannis Port, Mass., with the Kennedys — it also had enduring sorrows. Their circle included Mrs. Bradlee’s older sister, Mary Meyer, a painter whose murder in 1964 on the C&O Canal towpath remains unsolved.

The case took an eerie twist, Ben Bradlee later wrote in his memoir, “A Good Life.” The Bradlees saw CIA counterintelligence chief James J. Angleton picking the padlock on Meyer’s Georgetown art studio in an attempt to retrieve her diary. (Meyer and Angleton’s wife were friends.)

Mrs. Bradlee subsequently found the diary, which appeared to disclose her sister’s affair with late President John F. Kennedy. Mrs. Bradlee and her husband, who was serving as head of Newsweek’s Washington bureau, turned the diary over to Angleton with the promise that the CIA would destroy it.

More than a decade later, Mrs. Bradlee was upset when she heard Angleton had not kept his word. Through an intermediary, she got the diary back and set it on fire.

The real story is more spooky than here portrayed. Does anyone believe that Angleton would have conducted a black bag job himself over trifling gossip?

A review about a new book on George Kennan in The New Yorker

A long review of John Lewis Gaddis's new book on George Kennan is in the Nov 14 issue of The New Yorker.

The review starts off by establishing that Kennan did not much care for Americans (America yes, Americans no).  A number of examples illustrating how Kennan was a dick are included (this is not even the worst):

In January, 1944, when the end of the war was in sight, Kennan served in the American delegation to the European Advisory Commission, in London. Bohlen (who had been in Tokyo when Pearl Harbor was attacked, and was interned for six months) remembered Kennan returning to Washington “appalled by the behavior of American soldiers—their reading of comic books, their foul language, and their obsession with sex, among other things. He wondered whether the United States was capable of being a world power.”

Once we stipulate that Kennan had his flaws as a human being, we are able to get down to business.  A very good discussion of  The Long Telegram and "The Sources of Soviet Conduct" by "X" begins thusly:

In all his reports, Kennan’s repeated message to Washington was “Get real.” He didn’t just disapprove of idealistic policy talk. He deeply loathed it. Declarations about the self-determination of peoples or international economic coöperation—the kind of thing that Roosevelt and Churchill announced as Allied war aims in the Atlantic Charter—seemed to him not only utopian and unenforceable but dangerously restrictive on a government’s scope of action. If you tell the world that you are fighting to preserve the right of self-determination, then any outcome short of that makes you look hypocritical or weak. Concessions to Soviet national-security interests were going to be necessary in Eastern Europe; it was better to be frank about this, and to stop pretending that Moscow and Washington had the same goals and values. But for domestic political reasons the American government always wants to appear virtuous, Kennan thought; so it continued to call the Soviets comrades and allies even as they were clearly preparing to walk all over the Atlantic Charter.

(...)

Kennan was appalled when he read the draft of Truman’s speech [announcing the Truman Doctrine], and for the rest of his life he protested that he had meant containment to be a policy of selective confrontation, and its means to be diplomatic and economic, not military. But he was construed otherwise. Lippmann wrote a book, called “The Cold War,” in 1947, attacking Kennan and containment, on the assumption that the X article, which appeared four months after Truman’s speech, was meant as a justification of the Truman Doctrine. Lippmann had got Kennan completely wrong. Kennan was so upset that he wrote Lippmann a long letter explaining his mistake, but could never bring himself to send it.

Reviewer kinda goes off the rails when he suggests that Kennan's requirement to have suicide pills on hand when stationed in Moscow was so that he could make an honorable exit if his compulsive womanizing were to be discovered.  (The real reason is doubtlessly more prosaic.)  And Gaddis, the author of the book, does not endorse the reviewer's theory on this.

As the exemplification of a realist in international relations, Kennan drew criticism easily:

[I]n 1978, Alexander Solzhenitsyn attacked Kennan, by name, for refusing to apply moral values to politics. “Thus we mix good and evil, right and wrong, and make space for the absolute triumph of absolute Evil in the world,” he said.

Solzhenitsyn was right that Kennan was allergic to concepts that were important to Soviet dissidents, concepts like “human rights.” The reason Kennan considered the United Nations a bad idea was that it is an organization based on the pretense that every nation can subscribe disinterestedly to international legal principles—when nations are always, and rightly, interested primarily in preserving or extending their own power. He was horrified by the Nuremberg Trials. “Crimes against humanity” was just the sort of exalted legalism that he thought led to foreign-policy disaster. In any case, he believed that, once the United States accepted Stalin as an ally, it lost the moral authority to condemn Nazism. Kennan spent a good deal of his early life in Germany; in the two volumes of his memoirs, there is not a single mention of the Holocaust.

The review wraps up on a high note:

Still, buried within Kennan’s realism there is a moral view: that in relations of power, which is what he thought international relations ultimately are, people can’t be trusted to do the right thing. They will do what the scorpion does to the frog—not because they choose to but because it’s their nature. They can’t help it. This is an easy doctrine to apply to other nations, as it is to apply to other people, since we can always see how professions of benevolence might be masks for self-interest. It’s a harder doctrine to apply to ourselves. And that was, all his life, Kennan’s great, overriding point. We need to be realists because we cannot trust ourselves to be moralists.

Peloponnesian Blowback

To a meme.

Rules:
1. Link to your tagger and post these rules on your blog.
2. Share 7 facts about yourself on your blog, some random, some weird.
3. Tag 7 people at the end of your post by leaving their names as well as links to their blogs.
4. Let them know they are tagged by leaving a comment on their blog.
5. Present an image of martial discord from whatever period or situation you'd like.


Rule 1: Selil Blog. Thanks, resurrecting & tenured One(s?). Honored We are.

Rule 2: 7 things 'bout pickled Selves. Caution to the wind...

1. Was once an eagle scout spanked by a Marxist-Leninist Mormon Melchizedek. Joseph Smith, Joseph Stalin - what the diff. A scout leader once bore down on me for eating hot dogs directly out of the package - 'twas an unchristian abomination as munching on uncooked hot dogs was an act of cannibalism.

2. Once stood within 4 unobstructed feet of Arafat, within 5 obstructed feet of George Clooney (he was surrounded by an obstructing firewall of 6 foot tall Russian prostitutes shuttled in to Les Caves des Roy in Saint Tropez from Cannes' La Chunga Bar so to better cover their heady Cote d'Azur overheads of gimpy Russian pimps and exorbitant room rates at the Hotel Martinez (where they co-dwelled with mothers, grandmothers and toddling children) )- and to boot, once stood in a suddenly de-constructing situation, caught weirdly aware of the fact that I was wearing Björn Borg boxer shorts while drinking with Börje Salming (who also hawks a line of trés chère metrosexual men's underwear).

3. Father of daughters. Not father to any sons as far as made aware. Never spanked anything but a chest poking drunk but that mighty butt-smack silenced a sticky-floored beer hall for a full 5 seconds and brought tears to a grown man's Tuborg'd eyes.

5. Eat plain oatmeal (uncooked) with cold milk every morning and have done so for over 20 years. During such time, have never eaten a hotel breakfast even though well over a thousand hotel nights have been notched up - once asleep sleep is jealously relished.

6. Enjoy lifting weights and swimming in oceans but am far from being as strong, fast, or enduring as invested efforts in such activities should have reasonably left one endowed.

7. Been told repeatedly I make the world's best dry martini. Sometimes it's true - as when I give them away for free.

Rule 3: Tagging: Been regularly following a slurry of blogs via RSS on our latest mobile gizmo during the SMC hiatus; all of the blogs listed on That Shortbus and many of those crowded under Rhizomatic Graffiti.

So who to tag? Howz'boutz:

• Self-professed neocon and pro-victory Donald Douglas over at American Power 'cause he deplorably deplores ad hominems.
• Ex-NASA wizkid Ken Andersson over at Shockfront (formerly of Anything They Say) 'cause he's a heck of a stargazer and such an effing bleeding heart of a savant at that.
• Exploring the Heart of Asia, formerly Afghanistanica, 'cause we declared him as having written our favorite post of the year (we were quaffing M1's world's best silver bullets at the time of coronation)
• An available staffer over at Alternate Brain.
• Antoine Fafard. He knows how to pace his posting.
• Roguely Stated for their occasional drive-bys .
• Kings of War. Something about 'em.
  

Rule 4: Inform tagged - doing & near done

Rule 5: Post image of martial discord - Lysistrate; Blowback (see pic above)

Slightly Off Message

During a State Department meeting yesterday in which Foreign Service Officers aired their grievances about a new policy which may involve forced assignments to Baghdad, one officer expressed his view about the "improved" security environment on the ground there:

Service in Iraq is "a potential death sentence," said one man who identified himself as a 46-year Foreign Service veteran (Jack Croddy). "Any other embassy in the world would be closed by now," he said to sustained applause.

Harry K. Thomas Jr., the director general of the Foreign Service, who called the meeting, responded curtly. "Okay, thanks for your comment," he said, declaring the town hall meeting over.

Let Slip the Dog of War

French mercenary Bob Denard, British author Frederick Forsyth's source of inspiration for the novel The Dogs Of War, died Saturday in Paris.

Though never confirmed or admitted, many of Denard's exploits are widely assumed to have had the tacit approval of French authorities, who were anxious to maintain French influence in Africa.

The suspicion that he was regarded with leniency in his home country grew stronger in 1993 when a five-year French prison sentence over a failed 1977 coup attempt in Benin was reduced to a suspended sentence.

His final French conviction - for a 1995 coup attempt in the Comoros - also earned him a suspended sentence.

This was later increased by an appeal court to a year in jail with three suspended - but he never served it because of ill health.

In 1999, Denard - then 70 - was tried in connection with the assassination of Comoran President Ahmed Abdallah 10 years earlier. He was cleared.

During a trial on appeal in 2006, a former head of the foreign intelligence service said:

When special services are unable to undertake certain kinds of undercover operation, they use parallel structures. This was the case of Bob Denard.

"Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war."

-William Shakespeare
Julius Caesar, Scene I, Act III

From Suicide Bomber to Starbucks - Bob Dylan's Blowin' Odyssey

Folk music perp Izzy Young (Israel Goodman Young) recently re-unearthed an unpublished Bob Dylan lyric from 1963. Izzy originally chanced upon the 2 page lyric back in 1983 when rummaging through his papers and filed it away again only to rediscover it anew a short while ago.

Izzy used to incessantly complain to M1 how Dylan, after achieving fame and notoriety, completely ignored Izzy. This despite the fact (fact according to Izzy) that it was Izzy who first discovered and headlined the young Bob in his Folklore Center down in Greenwich Village back in the wee sixties. Izzy's whining eventually died down as Dylan for some undisclosed reason recently started giving Izzy both the time of day and comps when he visited Stockholm for gigs.

Izzy said that Dylan let him know he could keep the paper the lyrics are machine typed upon - but not the rights to the lyrics. These days Dylan sells his music to Starbucks and Victoria's Secret. Back in the day the best buck was made selling protest songs - like this unearthed diddy about suicide bombing the White House.

Excerpt of GO AWAY YOU BOMB by Bob Dylan (October 2007)
(copyright Special Rider Music)



I want that bomb - I want it hangin' out a' my pocket an' danglin'

On my key-chain - I want it strapped to my belt buckle -

I want it stickin' out a' my boot

I want it fallin' out a' my sock

I wanna wear it on my wedding finger an' I wanna tie it with bandanas

To my head

I want that Bomb -

I want it settin in my mouth like a cigar

I want it stickin from my ears like a carrot

I wanna look in the mirror an' see it in my eyes

I want one in both hands

I want two in both arms

I want that bomb to be hangin' an' hurtin' an' shinin' an' burnin'

I want it glowing and backbiting - and whistling an' side winding

I want it showin' all over my living self

I want it breathin' from every porthole

I want it blowin' from every pore

I want it weightin' me down so I can't even walk right

I wanna get up in the mornin' an scare the day right out a' it's dawn

Then I walk into the White House an' say "DIG YOURSELVE'S".

Don't Tase Me at IDGA's NCW-Con, Bro ;)

Donald Rumsfeld, hyper-zealous disciple of Chicago Boy Milton Friedman, who introduced the radical down-sizing and out-sourcing Shock & Awe CEO management style to the Pentagon, will be giving a key note presentation and hold an extended Q&A session during IDGA's (Institute for Defense & Government Advancement) 7th annual Network Centric Warfare (NCW) 2008 Conference January 22 - 25, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, DC.

Strangely poetic, Colonel T.X. Hammes (USMC(Ret), author of "The Sling and the Stone"), will also be delivering a key note presentation on fifth generation and network enabled warfare at the conference.

I gotta phone Ray and see if he'll be attending. If so, it might be a stunner.
More info here.

We Don't Need Another Fight Right Now

When you are already trying to hold your own against a couple of bad-asses in the meanest part of town, the last thing you need is for your drunken girlfriend to go start something with the biker gang on the corner.

Leaving aside the relative merits of a strike against the Iranians, why might America's military resist such action? First, consider the fact that the US has at the moment 162,000 troops in Iraq, 30,000 in Kuwait, 4,500 in Bahrain and 3,300 in Qatar - not to mention the two carrier battle groups in the Gulf or the 8,500 troops on the ground in Afghanistan. In the event of an American or Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, for example, the troops in Iraq, the Gulf and Afghanistan would be in even greater danger than they already are, vulnerable to an Iranian counterattack or, more likely, an Iranian-sponsored terror campaign.

Second, there exists a tremendous sense of guilt among the US senior officer corps for what is seen as a failure to stand up to the civilian leadership in the rush to go to war against Iraq in 2002 and 2003. Much of the current divide between America's generals and its junior officer corps boils down to a sense on the part of junior officers that their superiors largely acquiesced to whatever Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in the run-up to the Iraq war. The charge of spinelessness is one that hurts America's generals, especially as it comes from lieutenants and captains who have proven themselves on the battlefield of Iraq.

Third, in the wake of the Iraq war, professional military officers are more suspicious than ever of think-tank types with theories on how easy military victories can be achieved. As an active-duty US Army officer recently told me: "If I hear one more lawyer with no military experience explain to me how air power alone really can do it this time, I'm going to kill him." [I and my Nellis komrads concur. -M1]

But that doesn't take into consideration that the Defense Department is the largest and most complicated department in the US government. As a bureaucracy, the Pentagon is almost Ottoman in terms of its scale and complexity. The system is dependent on thousands of mid-level military officers and civilian bureaucrats, and if a few determined bureaucrats set their minds to slowing a march to war, they can do it. The employees of the Pentagon can insist that every form be filled out in triplicate, that every authorization be approved by Congress, and bury those agitating for war in so much paperwork it would take a determined effort just to dig out.

The second thing those military officers and bureaucrats could do is leak information to the press should the administration begin taking secret steps toward military action. Prior to the Iraq war, officers rarely came into contact with journalists. But thanks to the personal relationships that have developed between journalists and the military in Iraq and Afghanistan, nearly every mid-level US Army or Marine Corps officer has the name and number of at least one journalist in his or her rolodex.

Tori Does Baghdad Too

It's speculation writ large at this point but I'm willing to wager Chateau de Skanks that this quirky story be but da' tip of a most troubling iceberg; namely the existence of human trafficking rackets peddling the services of sex workers (primarily desperate locals) to soldiers serving in Iraq.

An explosive issue best kept under the tightest of wraps given the righteousness of the mission and the moral sensitivities of the region, non? -M1

In a posting this week on an adult Web site, "Tori of Atlanta" offers her services to private contractors deploying to Iraq. On the Erotic Review site, Tori says she will be in the Middle East for three months, including a stint in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone.

"I am in a unique position of entertaining from a secured compound," she writes, later inviting contractors to visit her Web site for details on "setting aside a few moments to enjoy some R&R... American style. Sandstorms, Camels, heat and protective gear... now a quick reminder of home!!"

But uniformed troops need not apply. Tori closes her posting with this stipulation:

"My apologies but at this time I am UNABLE to plan any meetings w/ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY. (*The members of PMC community has an exclusive arrangement during this visit*) Kisses, Tori."

PMC is the acronym for private military companies, which have deployed thousands of armed civilian contractors alongside U.S. troops in Iraq. The use of contractors has reached a level unseen in any previous American war., creating tension over disparities in pay and work conditions.

Tori limits her invitation to contractors who are registered with the Private Security Company Association of Iraq, a Baghdad-based trade group that, according to its Web site, represents about 50 companies, including Moyock, N.C.-based Blackwater USA. The trade association's logo is reproduced at the bottom of the posting.

In a statement Friday, Lawrence Peter, director of the trade group, said Tori's use of the group's name and logo were unauthorized.

"We have not, nor ever will, condone the type of activity suggested," Peter said. "We are currently investigating the source of these allegations and any association member found promoting, condoning or participating in these activities will be immediately expelled."

Tori appears to be a well-established "escort" of some repute. Two customers who reviewed her performance online rated her a "10 - one in a lifetime."

Among her blog postings are salutes to the Blackwater contractors who did security work in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina and to five Blackwater men who died in a helicopter crash in Baghdad in January.

Tori describes her Green Zone digs as a bullet- and shrapnel-proof, earthquake-resistant "villa" with a 24-hour guard.

She requires a 50 percent deposit at the time of booking, but prices were not listed. She also notes that Saturdays "will be observed as 'quiet' time... in keeping with local customs."

Tori, a 5GW sex worker and she probably doesn't even know it.

Anyways, this story smells fishy - we're just not sure why. We posted it and figured we can sort out the deciphering of it later. Maybe it's a phony, maybe not. These are early days. -M1

Then Becometh This: Frequent Wind Danish

Then That

Baltic and Nordic Headlines

A press review with summaries of asylum and refugee-related articles in regional media. Thursday 28 to Friday 29 June 2007 -External Relations Unit,UNHCR Regional Office for the Baltic and Nordic Countries, Stockholm (pdf)

Denmark

Ministry of Foreign Affairs admits its bad practice in the interpreter issue
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs admits having made a mistake in not informing the Minister of Development Cooperation Ulla Tørnæs about the murder of an Iraqi interpreter working for the Danish troops. On Thursday Tørnæs presented the Ministry’s report on the reasons why the Minister for Foreign Affairs or Minister for Development Cooperation were not informed about the murder in December last year. From now on all murders of earlier employees of the Danish troops will be reported to the Minister of Development Cooperation. Earlier deaths have been reported only if they were directly caused by the service for the Danish troops.
-Berlingske Tidende 28 June 2007

Iraqi interpreters have to were masks when on duty
Several Iraqi interpreters have searched for a refuge at the Danish military camp.
They are afraid to be killed as revenge for having helped the Danish soldiers. When on duty with the Danish troops, the interpreters use scarves, sun glasses and helmets to mask themselves. They wish to receive either asylum or permission to stay in Denmark until Iraq becomes more secure.
-Politiken 28 June 2007
Iraqi interpreters can apply for asylum in Denmark
The government has made a decision concerning the immediate future of the 22 interpreters who have served Danish forces in Iraq. As Denmark prepares to withdraw all its troops in August the government coalition has hammered out a deal with the Danish People’s Party which allows the interpreters to seek asylum in Denmark along with their families. A further 130 Iraqis who have worked for the Danish troops over the past four years will also be offered the possibility of coming to Denmark with their families. The three-party agreement signals a complete turnaround by the Danish People’s Party.
-Politiken 29 June 2007

Also Afghan interpreters wish to get asylum in Denmark
An interpreter helping the Danish troops in Afghanistan says the Danish government cannot provide protection to the interpreters in Afghanistan. According to Essa Habibi the only way to protect them is to give them asylum in Denmark. Spokesperson Mogens Lykketoft from the Social Democrats demands now that the agreement on Iraqi interpreters is extended to include the Afghan interpreters as well.
-DR 28 June 2007

Now This (Still Breaking...)

Denmark has completed the secret evacuation of 200 Iraqis out of Basra this morning.

Iraqi employees (and nearest of kin) of various Danish contingencies in Basra have been covertly airlifted out of Basra this week in three separate Hercules flights. The third and final of the top secret flights will touch down in Denmark this morning (CET).

The operation represents the largest ever evacuation of people out of a war zone by the Danish Armed Forces.

The mission commenced last January when Danish soldiers publicly called upon their government to make provisions for safe haven to Iraqis providing critical services and facilities to Danish operations in Basra.

The presence of the Iraqis within the Danish base west of Basra was believed to be the cause of the recent increase in intensity of attacks against it.

P.S.
Somebody smarter please, should these be considered tactical or strategic airlifts - or just Euro-desperate airlifts? I'm not buying humanitarian...that's just too mushy heading in to a weekend.
-M1

New NIE On Terrorist Threat to U.S. Homeland

This morning, the office of the Director of National Intelligence released a declassified version of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) titled The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland (7 page pdf):

Key Judgments

We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al-Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.

We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.

• We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.

Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.

• As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat environment.

We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.

We assess that al-Qa’ida’s Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the US population. The group is proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices, and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.

• We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability.

We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran.

We assess that the spread of radical—especially Salafi—Internet sites, increasingly aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West’s Muslim population is expanding, including in the United States. The arrest and prosecution by US law enforcement of a small number of violent Islamic extremists inside the United States— who are becoming more connected ideologically, virtually, and/or in a physical sense to the global extremist movement—points to the possibility that others may become sufficiently radicalized that they will view the use of violence here as legitimate. We assess that this internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however.

We assess that other, non-Muslim terrorist groups—often referred to as "single-issue" groups by the FBI—probably will conduct attacks over the next three years given their violent histories, but we assess this violence is likely to be on a small scale.

We assess that globalization trends and recent technological advances will continue to enable even small numbers of alienated people to find and connect with one another, justify and intensify their anger, and mobilize resources to attack—all without requiring a centralized terrorist organization, training camp, or leader.

• The ability to detect broader and more diverse terrorist plotting in this environment will challenge current US defensive efforts and the tools we use to detect and disrupt plots. It will also require greater understanding of how suspect activities at the local level relate to strategic threat information and how best to identify indicators of terrorist activity in the midst of legitimate interactions.

Pandering To That Pesky Base - Two Turkish Tales

In this warm night in Ankara, the bets are open at the terraces of both the popular and fashionable cafés and restaurants of the capital. The gambling now is not on the "if" but on the "when" of the first Turkish shot on Iraqi land. But the excitement, if any, is not shared by the shopkeepers, hotel owners and restaurateurs around the country. The clicking of rifle triggers and that of cash registers have never been in harmony. For them, the war can wait.

The button of the stopwatch counting down the invasion of Northern Iraq by the Turkish army was probably pressed on Tuesday, at an impromptu meeting between Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The two men have, in theory, scheduled meetings on Thursdays, which are often not maintained, as they do not see politically eye-to-eye. The surprise meeting on Tuesday has sparked speculation that the assault is near. Cynics, however, say this is just another coup de theatre, which aims at shaking from the shoulders the United States and Iraq, who are clearly opposed to military action against the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) on Iraqi soil.

False alarms have been almost a routine since the beginning of this year, when the General Staff of the armed forces energetically requested the government's approval to move into Northern Iraq in large numbers in order to avenge the weekly casualties by the army in Eastern Turkey, caused by PKK armed militants stationed in refugee camps and villages in Iraq.

The Turkish army has been drawing plans since last year for a "total clean-up" of that region, but the government has avoided responding clearly. A wait-and-see strategy has prevailed within the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the ruling political formation.

Other events this week corroborate the growing belief that the incursion is near. The U.S. ambassador to Ankara on Monday had to publicly reject in dismay allegations by the Turkish press that his government has been selling weapons to PKK members. The United States, as well as the EU and Turkey, consider this organisation a terrorist one.

General Yasar Buyukanit, head of the General Staff, speaking on Tuesday at a security conference in the Mediterranean resort city of Antalya, criticised the international community for what he claims was lack of foreign understanding for the situation and cooperation with Turkey to "combat Kurdish terrorism" in Iraq directed against his country.

Gen. Buyukanit came out of a short period of silence on the subject, to which he had retreated after Prime Minister Erdogan had in late June declared that he did not plan to allow in the short-term massive military action in the neighbouring country. In Antalya, however, he was outspoken.

"While we maintain our struggle against this terrorist organisation," said Buyukanit referring to the PKK, "and expect international cooperation in this struggle, we are having difficulty understanding some positions and attitudes that we face. These attitudes not only disappoint us but contradict the basic notion that combating terrorism requires better cooperation."

More indicative, perhaps, of the signs of an impending incursion into Iraq by Turkish forces is the recent escape of a small group of PKK members who fled a refugee camp in North Iraq and crossed the border to Turkey to seek asylum.

At a press conference this week, organised by local authorities, they claimed that large numbers of Turkish Kurds were fleeing the region in anticipation of a Turkish advance, and that Turkish artillery was abundantly shelling PKK combatant positions.

There is suspicion, however, among observers that the escape and revelations may have been orchestrated by Turkish security services, within the context of psychological warfare, either to incite PKK activists in Northern Iraq to abandon the region, or to prepare the Turkish opinion for future events. Either way, such incidents and information from "beyond the enemy lines" are typical of pre-intervention activity and carry a message or a warning.

The meeting on Tuesday between the two Turkish leaders also indicates that Erdogan is in a situation where he has either to comply with the military, supported by and supporting Sezer, or face the consequences of his moderate approach to the handling of the Kurdish problem.

Not that long ago, on Jun. 13, the Prime Minister rebuked insistence by the military to cross the border into Iraq. This was consistent with earlier statements of intent to build productive relationships with political chiefs in Northern Iraq rather than punish their constituents for their support to the PKK.

"Steps to improve relations with the regional Kurdish administration might be taken in Northern Iraq, why not; as long as it brings peace and calm and paves way for positive developments. If every step we are to take will bring calm for us and for them, we are game anytime," Erdogan told Hurriyet, a national newspaper, Feb. 15.

The rationale for his decision in June not to authorise the invasion was that the problem was not really PKK presence in Northern Iraq but that of PKK armed activists within his country. "There are 500 terrorists in Iraq; there are 5,000 terrorists inside Turkey. Has terrorism inside Turkey ended for us to think about an operation in Northern Iraq?" he asked.

He was quick to add that the figures he gave were just for the purpose of illustrating where the real issue was.

But Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have his back against the wall now -- unless he has lured the President and the opposition on to his turf, a competence at which he excels. On the face of things, Sezer may have put Erdogan before an ultimatum. Either the Prime Minister authorises the invasion or it can be launched without his approval.

Sezer, as President, is commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Article 92 of the Turkish Constitution provides that the President may decide to order the armed forces to take action if the country is attacked while Parliament is in recess.

Parliament is indeed in recess, and the country suffers weekly attacks from Iraq-based guerrillas. The President has therefore free hand to act. Erdogan however, either because he got the message or, likely, because he saw a political opportunity, has been swift to accommodate the hawks and steal the initiative.

It would seem that he is planning to call for an extraordinary parliamentary session to seek approval for cross-border action. This may lead to a "yes" or a "no", but in any event, the people will have decided -- and the military and the President will have (M1's emphasis)to abide by such decision.

([T]he timing for the green light to move into Iraq remains unclear. Launching the operation before the elections -- actually, a few days or hours before Jul. 22 -- could increase Erdogan's popularity. At the same time, it could lead to a postponement of the elections, due to a national emergency, an outcome favourable to CHP and probably sought by Sezer.)
-Hacked Excerpt From IPS

And on the related topic of the Turkish incursion into Iraq last month that maybe wasn't:

Yes, it is an incursion which is not; because it is an incursion featuring messages on many wavelengths. For example, it reflects military frustration over recently increased PKK attacks. But it may also be reflecting a military desire “to go for domestic consumption” at a time when an increasingly angry Turkish electorate prepare to vote and when Mr. Erdoğan's government is being accused of being the lackey of the Kurds' cross-Atlantic allies. But there is more.

The incursion which is not is probably so finely-balanced so as not to be “large enough” to (militarily) antagonize the Iraqi Kurds and their American partners and/or to (politically) antagonize the European Union which actually is no longer a Turkish concern.

But it is “large enough” to give a message to frustrated Turkish crowds: “Your heroic army is doing what needs to be done when your poor prime minister still talks about ‘the right time' and his poor government cannot raise a finger to confront the Kurds' Atlantic allies.”

More messages:

… that the men in uniform are more sensitive to coffins wrapped in the Crescent and Star than the men in dark suits; and that the military dares to confront ‘western powers' when the government cannot.

...that it's the generals who decide if additional Turkish troops should enter Iraq to counter Kurdish terrorism, not the government or the lawmakers who care more about their election chances than terror victims…

...that sometimes the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara may have to directly contact the General Staff, not the government (the Foreign Ministry), to understand what is going on at the Iraqi border…

...that sometimes the government cannot govern… Is the military HQ an ambassador's usual first point of contact?

The incursion which is not is probably next to nothing in operational terms: It cannot badly hurt the PKK. It may even be counter-productive as the battle there may go in the wrong direction and/or it may spark possible future retaliation in the form of more PKK terror.

But in terms of psychological warfare, the operation may serve to help test U.S. (and Iraqi Kurdish) limits; and, given the likely way it will be covered in the national press, it may have (political) repercussions – in a way not so pleasant for Mr. Erdoğan's government.
-Excerpt From Turkish Daily News

Maybe It Can Be Blamed On Berezovsky

It's not like the universe of possible suspects is inexhaustible.

A mystery surrounding the deaths of five French fishermen in a trawler accident three years ago deepened yesterday when a judge said that the boat was probably sunk by an unknown submarine spying on NATO exercises.

Richard Foltzer, a French investigating magistrate, made his ruling after a campaign by relatives of the dead men to break through what they describe as a wall of silence put up by France, Britain and other NATO members.

They have always believed that a submarine caused the sinking of the Breton trawler Bugaled Breizh off Cornwall in January 2004, and that officials have covered up the truth.

They claimed to have been vindicated when Judge Foltzer told them that the most plausible theory was that one of the trawler's cables had been caught by a submarine which then dragged it under water.

"The legal system first talked about a submarine nautical event, then an exogenous force and now they are pronouncing the word submarine," said Maître Christian Bergot, the lawyer representing the fishermen’s families. "The judge has made striking progress."

Judge Foltzer appears to have ruled out claims that the accident was caused by a British or Dutch submarine participating in the joint NATO and Royal Navy exercise.

Documents submitted by the British authorities say that HMS Turbulent – accused in a French television documentary of involvement in the sinking – was tied up in Devonport while HMS Torbay was 100 miles away. The Dutch vessel, Dolfinj, was nine miles away.

After meeting Judge Foltzer, Maître Bergot said: "The submarine expert designated by the judge has put NATO's submarines out of the area.

"If it's not one of those, it can only be a spy submarine," he said the judge told him.

He welcomed judicial backing for what relatives claim to be the most likely explanation for the loss, but said that it would be very difficult to trace the submarine allegedly responsible.

Rémi Gloagen, whose brother Patrick died in the sinking, said: “We were happy that the word 'submarine' was pronounced but when the spy submarine was mentioned we said to ourselves, 'We're at a dead end'."

On dit

From the Baghdad embassy grapevine:

Just another day at the office for our man in Baghdad, Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

Wednesday's confidential Situation Report over there said that the security office in Baghdad "reports 9 to 10 rounds of IDF" -- indirect fire, meaning mortar rounds or rockets -- "have hit the Embassy Baghdad compound. One round caused damage to the Embassy's north wing. There are no reported casualties.

"Further to Watch Alert 1241, Embassy Baghdad reports Ambassador Crocker's office window was damaged by one IDF round, sending shrapnel into his office. The Ambassador was in the room at the time of the attack, but there were no injuries."

We're told the windows were blown out and glass shards were in the office. But this, for Crocker, is par for the course.

Let's recall that the near-legendary diplomat was working in the embassy in Beirut in 1983 when a suicide bomber driving a delivery van of explosives rammed into the seven-story building, split it in two and killed 64 people.

Crocker was blown against a wall and bloodied but not seriously injured. He and his wife, who also worked there, got out of the building and he went through the rubble, searching for colleagues. ...

About six months ago, the Iraq Study Group noted that, of the 1,000 employees at the embassy in Baghdad, only 33 speak Arabic and six speak the language fluently, meaning at a 4 level. This puts the war effort "often at a disadvantage."

Well, we're happy to report, as we move along in the fifth year of the war, there appears maybe to have been progress since that report. The State Department, in response to a reporter's question, said Wednesday that now "10 Foreign Service Officers are at or above the 3 reading/3 speaking level in Arabic and five others test at or above the 3 level in speaking. A 3/3 indicates a general professional fluency level."

Hard to describe these levels with precision, but a 3/3 is the minimum fluency level, where you can get by quite well, give a reasonably correct speech but maybe not be able to read a contract or completely understand a rapid-fire chat among the locals.

NIC Sponsors Global Disease Threat Wiki

At the invitation of the National Intelligence Council, a group of graduate students attending Mercyhurst College’s Institute for Intelligence Studies has used their Strategic Intelligence class project to support and supplement the council’s work on global disease.

Twenty-six students spent 10 weeks writing their own wiki-based "National Intelligence Estimate" on the subject of global disease and its possible strategic impacts, addressing the "key estimative question" posed by the project coordinator assigned to the group: What are the most important and most likely impacts on, and threats to, U.S. national interests resulting from infectious and chronic human disease originating outside our country over the next 10 to 15 years?

The students were given telephone access to analysts within the intelligence community, and the Office of the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis set up a private wiki for the students to use, but they worked independently of any government office.

The end product contains more than 1,000 individual pages, assesses the strategic impact of disease across the globe and draws on a wide range of publicly available sources, such as World Health Organization reports, media reports and government publications.

The Mercyhurst INSIGHT (Identifying National Security Implications of Global Health Trends) Wiki.

Hardly a Philbyesque Breach

This might bring some unwanted attention to one or two elderly chaps, but it doesn't quite rise to the level of a major security violation given all the time that has passed.

If this information had surfaced during the war, however, it could have caused a bit of a sticky wicket.

A blunder by MI5 has blown the cover on some of its top wartime agents 60 years after they were recruited to carry out secret operations.

Despite a tradition of protecting the identities of spies, an apparently innocuous file released by MI5 to the National Archives has allowed a number of agents who operated during the Second World War to be identified.

The information is contained in a schedule from the body's secret wartime interrogation centre, Camp 020, in which captured German agents were interrogated and "broken".

Names and dates on the schedule can be cross checked against other files where the names of agents have been blacked out, allowing their identities to be confirmed.

The names include those of IRA members, Poles, Scandinavians and other foreigners trained in spy craft by the German intelligence services before being sent on missions to Britain.

Some stayed on in the UK after the war and at least one, a Pole, is thought to be still alive. Among the listed Irishmen is Joseph Lenihan, one of a number of agents whose identities had been the subject of much historical research.

Codenamed "Basket", Lenihan had first been recruited by German military intelligence before being "turned" by MI5.

Those named in the schedules were interrogated at Camp 020, based in Latchmere House in Middlesex, which was crucial in detecting German spies entering Britain and turning them into double agents.

A spokesman for MI5 said yesterday: "We neither confirm nor deny the identities of past or present MI5 agents."

Somali Pirates' Market Outlook Bullish

Teaming up with the juice in Addis Ababa, the U.S. invaded Somalia 2006 to restore order in a state oft branded as failing/rogue. For that the local pirates are most grateful. They're all bullish about the post-invasion market.

Excerpt From The Tapei Times

"We prefer hijacking ships to being on land because that way we can feed ourselves," pirate Abdulahi Hasan Afdhub said by satellite telephone from a hijacked Taiwanese ship in Somali waters.

"There's no other work than piracy for us in this time of anarchy in Somalia. The money we get is the only way we can survive," he said.

The Somali pirate took control, along with a group of armed hijackers, of the Taiwanese fishing vessel in the middle of last month off the Somali coast and on June 2 they killed one crew member out of frustration with failed ransom negotiations.

They have threatened to kill more crew members if a ransom is not paid soon.

The ship is one of five held by Somali pirates who are back in action, attacking with speedboats mounted with machine guns, on a scale unseen for more than a year.

Attacks all but disappeared during six months of strict Islamist rule at the end of last year, but now -- after Ethiopian-Somali troops drove out the Islamist Courts Union at the start of the year -- the pirates are back with a vengeance.

You Don't Want No Drama

Currently, the most popular ringtone there is the Black Eyed Peas' "My Humps".

Afghanistan's largest mobile-phone company is only four years' old and has just made its first annual profit, but there are still teething problems.

Its field staff have to be wary of kidnappings and landmines, a sub-contractor was recently beheaded, Taliban militia have reportedly threatened to destroy its communications towers -- and most of its 1.3 million customers cannot read or write.

Apart from that, business is good for Telecom Development Company Afghanistan Ltd, better known as Roshan, at the dangerous front line of the mobile-phone industry, according to its smooth-talking British chief operating officer.

"Fortunately we have not had anyone (among Roshan staff) lost or killed, though 18 months ago a sub-contractor was killed but it was someone who did not follow any security rules," said Altaf Ladak, dressed crisply in a dark suit and tie.

"He was kidnapped and actually beheaded."

Afghanistan is as much a war zone as a telecoms market: about 50,000 foreign troops are battling an Islamist insurgency being waged by the Taliban, a militia group that ran the country until U.S.-led forces invaded and evicted it from power in 2001.

Suicide bombings, kidnappings, road-side bombs and violent crime are part of everyday life in this nation of around 30 million people.

Foreigners live behind concrete barriers and coils of razor wire. Armoured NATO troop carriers prowl the streets and just about every Afghan in uniform carries an AK-47.

But for the first time, mobile phones are threatening to outnumber guns on the streets of Afghanistan.

Only 8 percent of Afghans own a mobile phone but the market is growing at around 100,000 new customers a month, says Roshan, which means "Light" in the local Dari language.

"It's the fastest growing market in the world today in terms of penetration," Ladak said after giving a guided tour of Roshan's flagship Kabul store.

Freshly painted, the store looks on the inside like a mobile phone shop anywhere else in the world, except it has an armed guard and a sign over its main gate depicting an AK-47 with a red cross through it. "No entry with weapons," it warns.

MILITANTS ARE CUSTOMERS TOO

Last month, local media reported that Talibs had threatened to destroy Roshan's communications towers, accusing the company of providing their mobile-phone numbers to U.S. and Afghan military forces. The Taliban are Roshan customers as well.

"We heard about it," Ladak said, referring to the media reports. But he said Roshan had never received a direct threat from the Taliban and none of its towers had been destroyed.

Sometimes, when people are kidnapped and their captors call to make a ransom demand, a distraught relative or friend will ask Roshan to identify the captor's number. All Afghan mobile-phone numbers have to be registered by law to a name and address.

But Roshan says it won't reveal the identity of a customer to anyone other than the Communications Ministry.

"People will ask us for information if some of their friends have been kidnapped. We won't give that to them," Ladak said.

Roshan is a mixture of business and development assistance, majority-owned by a group controlled by wealthy benefactor Prince Karim Aga Khan, but also part-owned by Monaco Telecom, a firm whose major shareholder is Britain's Cable & Wireless.

Roshan has about half of the Afghan market, ahead of its older rival Afghan Wireless, a private firm backed by wealthy local businessman Ehsan Bayat, who is also a major benefactor.

Roshan made revenue in 2005 of $150 million, and turnover is growing at 20 to 30 percent every year, Ladak said, adding that the firm employed about 1,000 people, almost all of them Afghans.

But the challenges are many and not always related to security. For example, text messaging should be booming in a poor country like Afghanistan, because it is much cheaper than voice calls -- but most of the population cannot read or write.

In response, Roshan is developing a system of pictograms that Afghans can use for everyday communication.

So would Roshan list on a stock exchange one day?

"That's just not part of the philosophy," Ladak said. "Our philosophy is to be here for the long term and to look at more of the social side and rural development."

Can you imagine the drama when the Taliban leaders with teen-age daughters see their monthly cell bills?

There will be a whole new category of "Honor killings."

.

Cold War Redux: How Should We Thank Ye?

In an interview with the Globe and Mail, Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to target Europe with missiles, including potentially nuclear weapons, in a dramatic escalation of his Cold War-style showdown with the United States.

Mr. Putin, in an interview at his country residence outside Moscow, said he considers U.S. plans to build an eastern European anti-missile site to shoot down Iranian missiles a provocation aimed at Russia.

Asked what he might do to retaliate, he said he would return Russia to the Cold War status where missiles were aimed at European targets.

"It is obvious that if part of the strategic nuclear potential of the United States is located in Europe, and according to our military experts will be threatening us, we will have to respond," he said.

"What kind of steps are we going to take in response? Of course, we are going to get new targets in Europe."

He suggested that this could include powerful nuclear-capable weapons.

"What kind of means will be used to hit the targets that our military believe are potential threats to the Russian federation? This is a purely technical issue, be it ballistic missiles or cruise missiles, or some kinds of novel weapons systems - this is a purely technical issue."

-Excerpts From A Globe & Mail Exclusive

Plans For The New U.S. Embassy in Baghdad Posted Online

Detailed plans for the new U.S. Embassy under construction in Baghdad appeared online Thursday in a breach of the tight security surrounding the sensitive project.

Computer-generated projections of the soon-to-be completed, heavily fortified compound were posted on the Web site of the Kansas City, Mo.-based architectural firm that was contracted to design the massive facility in the Iraqi capital.

The images were removed by Berger Devine Yaeger Inc. shortly after the company was contacted by the State Department.

"We work very hard to ensure the safety and security of our employees overseas," said Gonzalo Gallegos, a department spokesman. "This kind of information out in the public domain detracts from that effort."

The 10 images included a scheme of the overall layout of the compound, plus depictions of individual buildings including the embassy itself, office annexes, the Marine Corps security post, swimming pool, recreation center and the ambassador's and deputy ambassador's residences. ...

Dan Sreebny, a spokesman for the embassy in Baghdad, declined to discuss the accuracy of the posted images.

"In terms of commenting whether they're accurate, obviously we wouldn't be commenting on that because we don't want people to know whether they're accurate or not for security reasons," he said. ...

The images posted on the Web site show that the $592 million embassy, expected to be completed in September on prime real estate two-thirds the size of Washington's National Mall, will be a spacious and comfortable facility, albeit dangerous.

Identified as the "Baghdad U.S. Embassy Compound Master Plan," the images show palm-lined paths, green grass gardens and volleyball and basketball courts outside the Marine post, as well as the swimming pool.

"In total, the 104-acre compound will include over twenty buildings, including one classified secure structure and housing for over 380 families," the Web site says.

It says the compound will include the embassy building, housing, a PX, commissary, cinema, retail and shopping areas, restaurants, schools, a fire station, power and water treatment plants as well as telecommunications and wastewater treatment facilities.

A U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee report last year said embassy security will be extraordinary: Setbacks and perimeter no-go areas will be especially deep, structures reinforced to 2.5 times the standard and five high-security entrances, plus an emergency entrance-exit.

. .